A REVIEW OF THE MONTH OF JANUARY

We saw the reports of several data came and went as predicted

there was no single surprise. We have about fifty reports both 

medium and high impact data during the month of January and 

the UK retail sales of Friday 22/01/21 was the only trade call 

made and it worked very well.

The most important strategy is to able to predict the out comes

of the direction of the price-action and whether the report is 

tradable or not.

This is quite successful in the sense that the failure rate to 

success rate is 1:99 which is a conservative estimate. It means we

can successfully predict the outcomes of reports ninety-nine times

out of one hundred times.

We therefore rely heavily on the trading opportunities presented 

by the success rate.When we consider the Risk to Reward ratio

of 1:9, on all the calls we make to trade, it means nine good trades out of 

ten, which is 90% success rate.

Our target is about ten trades a year and 90% success rate is astronomical.

You can always get the release of the report independently from : 

www.investing.com/economic-calendar.

 

CALENDAR OF EVENTS FOR THE WEEK OF 01/02/2021

                        ALL TIMES ARE WAT 

 

MONDAY @ 10.30 AM : GBP   UK MANUFACTURING PMI

 

MONDAY @ 4.00 PM  USD   US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI

 

WEDNESDAY @ 10.30 AM:  GBP   UK SERVICES PMI

 

WEDNESDAY@ 4.00 PM  USD   US ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI

 

FRIDAY @ 2,30 PM :  USD    US NON-FARM PAYROLLS

 

FRIDAY @ 2.30 PM:  CAD   CA  EMPLOYMENT CHANGE

 

WATCHOUT FOR THE TRADE CALLS AS USUAL

 TODAY @ 2.30 PM : CAD   CA  GDP M/M > CURRENCY PAIR IN FOCUS: USDCAD>

 RATING : NEUTRAL ON BOTH POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE REPORTS .

 ACTION. SKIP THE TRADE. ONLY REPORTS WITH BETWEEN 25% AND 100%

ARE TRADABLE. NEUTRAL REPORTS WITH HUGE DEVIATIONS ARE FOR

ONLY SCALPING, NOT WORTH TRADING UNDER NORMAL CONDITIONS.

 TODAY @ 2.30 PM :  USD   US GDP Q/Q : CURRENCY PAIR IN FOCUS :  EURUSD

RATING : NEUTRAL ON BOTH POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE:

IT THEREFORE , NOT TRADABLE SINCE THE BEST REPORT 

IS SCALPING.

ACTION : SKIP THE TRADE.

 UPDATE : AUD   AU CPI Q/Q  CAME POSITIVE WITH :  +0.2 AND  +0.2.

A NO TRADE

 TODAY @ 1.30 AM :  AUD   AU CPI Q/Q :  CURRENCY IN FOCUS : AUDUSD.

RATING: EITHER POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE HAS A ZERO CHANCE.

THE REPORT IS NEUTRAL WITH MULTIPLE CONFLICTS.

ACTION ON THE AUDUSD : SKIP THE TRADE

                                 CALENDAR OF EVENTS FOR THE WEEK OF 25/01/21

                                                             ALL TIMES ARE WAT

 

 

WEDNESDAY @ 1.30 AM  AUD     AU CPI Q/Q

 

THURSDAY@ 2.30 PM     USD      US GDP Q/Q

 

FRIDAY @ 2.30 PM         CAD      CA GDP M/M

 TODAY @ 8.00AM : GBP  UK RETAIL SALES : CURRENCY PAIR IN FOCUS: GBPUSD

RATING : 50% CHANCE OF A GOOD TRADE IF REPORT IS NEGATIVE IN HARMONY 

WITH DAT.

POSITIVE REPORT IS A NO TRADE

 TODAY @ 8.00 AM : GBP   UK CPI . CURRENCY IN FOCUS :  GBPUSD.

BOTH POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE REPORTS ARE NEUTRAL.

NO MATTER THE DEVIATION, EITHER WAY, IT IS A SCALPING TRADE.

                        CALENDAR OF EVENTS FOR THE WEEK 18/01/21

                                             ALL TIMES ARE WAT

 WEDNESDAY : 8.00 AM: GBP  UK CPI

 

WEDNESDAY : 2.30 PM:  CAD    CA CORE CPI

 

THURSDAY 1.30 AM : AUD     AU EMPLOYMENT CHANGE

 

FRIDAY  8.00 AM : GBP   UK  RETAIL SALES

 

FRIDAY 9.30 AM : EUR   GERMAN MANUFACTURING & SERVICES PMI

 

FRIDAY 10.30 AM : GBP  UK MANUFACTURING & SERVICES PMI

 

FIRDAY 2.30 PM :  CAD   CA CORE RETAIL SALES

WATCH OUT FOR THE ANALYSIS DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK

 UPDATE :  US  CORE RETAIL SALES : A NO TRADE

 TODAY @ 2.30 PM : USD   US CORE RETAIL SALES :  CURRENCY IN FOCUS : GBPUSD

RATING:  50% CHANCE OF A GOOD TRADE IF THE REPORT COMES OUT POSIVE

A NEGATIVE REPORT IS A NO TRADE:

 UPDATE:  UK GDP Q/Q AND MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION. A NO TRADE.

 TODAY @ 8.00 AM: GBP  UK GDP AND MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION :

CURRENCY IN FOCUS: GBPUSD. 

THIS IS A TWO-PART REPORT :

1.  UK GDP Q/Q

2.  UK MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

RATING: 25% CHANCE OF A GOOD TRADE IF BOTH COME OUT NEGATIVE.

ZERO CHANCE IF BOTH SIDES ARE POSITIVE FOR SCALPING ONLY.

 CALENDAR OF EVENTS FOR THE WEEK OF 11/01/2021: ALL TIMES ARE: WAT

 

WEDNESDAY 13/01/2021: 2.30 PM: USD  US CORE CPI

 

FRIDAY 15/01/2021: 8.00AM :  GBP   UK GDP AND MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

 

FRIDAY 15/01/2021: 2,30 PM:  USD   US CORE RETAIL SALES.

 

 

 UPDATE : US NON-FARM PAYROLLS CAME -140K V 71K WHICH IS -211K

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CAME +0.1

AVERAGE EARNINGS CAME       +0.6

DOUBLE CONFLICTS PREVENTED US FROM THE OPPORTUNITY TO TRADE.

SO FAR, SO GOOD

 UPDATE : US NON-FARM PAYROLLS :  NO TRADE DUE TO DOUBLE CONFLICTS

 TODAY @ 2.30 PM :  USD   US NON-FARM PAYROLLS . CURRENCY PAIR IN FOCUS: USDCHF

RATING :  75% CHANCE OF A GOOD TRADE IF REPORT IS NEGATIVE IN HARMONY WITH

DEVIATION IN ABSOLUTE TERMS ( DAT). THIS IS A THREE-PART REPORT:

1. NON-FARM PAYROLLS

2. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

3 AVERAGE EARNINGS

TODAY @ 2.30 PM: CAD  CA EMPLOYMENT CHANGE. CURRENCY IN FOCUS: CADCHF

RATING: 50% CHANCE OF A GOOD TRADE WITHOUT CONFLICT.

 UPDATE :

US  ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI CAME 57.2 V 54.6 WHICH IS +2.6 DEVIATION.

SINCE IT WAS RATED ZERO CHANCE AND NO TRADE, IT ACTUALLY FAILED AS

EXPECTED. THE CURRENCY PAIR IN FOCUS WAS EURUSD.

WHAT WE ARE LOOKING FOR IS : BETWEEN 25% AND 100% WITHOUT CONFLICT

TO ORDER A TRADE.

WATCH OUT!

 AT 4.00PM  USD  US ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI WILL BE RELEASED.

NEGATIVE REPORT HAS 25% CHANCE WITH CONFLICT AND SO WE ARE

NOT TRADING THE REPORT. POSITIVE REPORT HAS A ZERO CHANCE.

 UPDATE : 

UK SERVICES PMI CAME 49.4 V 49.9 EQUALS -0.5 NEGATIVE

THE REPORT FAILED AS EXPECTED

THIS IS THE REASON WHY IT IS DIFFICULT TO PROFIT FROM 

FOREX TRADING IF YOU ENGAGE IN "BLIND TRADING" 

WITHOUT A CLEAR CUT STRATEGY THAT IS FOOL PROOF.

 TODAY IN A 30 MINUTES : GBP  UK SERVICES PMI:  CURRENCY PAIR IN FOCUS: GBPUSD

THIS REPORT HAS A ZERO CHANCE OF WORKING, WHETHER POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE.

THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE US ISM MANUFACTURING REPORT OF YESTERDAY 05/01/2021.

THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT GOING TO TRADE THIS REPORT.

 UPDATE :  USD  US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI CAME : 60.7 v 56.6 WITH A HUGE 

DEVIATION OF 4.1 AND EURUSD FAILED WOEFULLY BECAUSE OF THE FACT THAT 

DEVIATION ALONE DOES NOT DETERMINE PRICE ACTION.

THIS IS THE REASON WHY ONLY 5% OF FOREX RETAIL TRADERS ARE SUCCESSFUL.

SINCE THE REPORT HAD ZERO % CHANCE OF WORKING WELL, IT WAS BOUND TO FAIL AS IT DID

 4-00PM  TODAY :  USD   US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI :  CURRENCY PAIR IN 

FOCUS:EURUSD

THIS REPORT HAS ZERO CHANCE OF A GOOD TRADE WITH MULTIPLE 

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST. THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT TRADING THIS REPORT.

 UPDATE:  UK MANUFACTURING PMI came 57.5 vs 57.3 which means +0.2 deviation.

Either way , it was a zero chance of a good trade and it failed woefully as expected.

 UK MANUFACTURING PMI REPORT IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES TIME.

EITHER POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE REPORTS HAVE ZERO CHANCE

OF A GOOD TRADE.

THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT TRADING THIS REPORT BECAUSE IT FAILED 

TO GENERATE ENOUGH FACTORS OF A GOOD TRADE

 UPDATE:  CNH  CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI  came 53.0 v 54.8 which is negative 1.8 deviation

for a no trade and failed as expected

 UPDATE:

CAIXIN  MANUFACTURING PMI >CURRENCY IN FOCUS: AUDUSD.

25% CHANCE OF BEING TRADED WITH A CONFLICT OF INTEREST, SO WE ARE NOT TRADING IT.

 CALENDAR OF EVENTS FOR THE WEEK OF 04/01/2021

                                                ALL TIMES ARE: WAT

 

 

MONDAY 04/JAN: 2.45AM  HIGH IMPACT : CNY  CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI

 

MONDAY 04/JAN: 8.30AM MEDIUM IMPACT: SEK MANUFACTURING PMI

 

MONDAY 04/JAN 9.55AM MEDIUM IMPACT: EUR GERMAN MANUFACTURING PMI

 

MONDAY 04/JAN 10.30AM HIGH IMPACT: GBP UK MANUFACTURING PMI 

MONDAY 04/JAN 3.45PM MEDIUM IMPACT: USD  US MANUFACTURING PMI

TUESDAY 05/JAN 8.00AM MEDIUM IMPACT: EUR GERMAN RETAIL SALES

TUESDAY 05/JAN 4.00PM HIGH IMPACT: USD US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI

WEDNESDAY 06/JAN 10.30AM HIGH IMPACT: GBP  UK SERVICES PMI

THURSDAY 07/JAN 4.00PM HIGH IMPACT: USD  US ISM NON MANUFACTURING PMI

FRIDAY 08/JAN 2.30PM  HIGH IMPACT: USD   US NON-FARM PAYROLLS

==================   HIGH IMPACT CAD  EMPLOYMENT CHANGE

***  All medium impact data are not listed but any that has up to 50% chance of working will

be traded. Such medium impact data will be highlighted for trading few minutes before the 

release.

 

Watch out for the updates.

 Isaac O. Iselobhor

The Chief Strategist